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来源:华尔街见闻
“如果经济保持稳健且通胀持续存在,美联储会改成更缓慢地降息;而如果劳动力市场意外走弱,或者通胀下降速度快于预期,也准备好激进降息来回应。”
9月18日周三,美联储主席鲍威尔的记者会释放出鹰派信号,美股在他讲话之处一度继续上涨,随后发现苗头不对而掉头下挫转跌,重回午盘前的低点,债市、黄金、汇市也180度大反转。
这主要是因为鲍威尔称美联储只是在“适度校准政策立场”,没有预先设定的政策路线,将继续在逐次会议上根据经济数据来做出决定,未来降息速度可快、可慢甚至还会暂停。
比如他提到了几个政策组合:如果经济保 持稳健且通胀持续存在,美联储会改成更缓慢地降息;而如果劳动力市场意外走弱,或者通胀下降速度快于预期,也准备好激进降息来回应。
整体来说,鲍威尔意图打消市场人士对“大幅降息50个基点成为新常态”的激进押注。
以下为他在回答媒体提问前的讲稿全文(中英对照):
Good afternoon, my colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people.
下午好,我和我的同事们仍然专注于实现美联储的双重目标,即最大化就业和稳定物价,以造福美国人民。
Our economy is strong overall and has made significant progress toward our goals. Over the past two years, the labor market has cooled from its formerly overheated state. Inflation has eased substantially from a peak of 7% to an estimated 2.2% as of August, we‘re committed to maintaining our economy’s strength by supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to our 2% goal.
美国经济总体强劲,并已朝着我们的目标取得了重大进展。在过去两年中,劳动力市场已从之前的过热状态降温。截至8月,通货膨胀率已从7%的峰值大幅下降至8月份估计的2.2%。美联储致力于通过支持最大化就业和将通胀率恢复到2%的目标来保持经济强劲。
Today, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to reduce the degree of policy restraint by lowering our policy interest rate by a half percentage point. This decision reflects our growing confidence that with an appropriate recalibration of our policy stance, strength in the labor market can be maintained in a context of moderate growth and inflation moving sustainably down to 2%. We also decided to continue to reduce our securities holdings. I will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments.
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. GDP rose at an annual rate of 2.2% in the first half of the year, and available data point to a roughly similar pace of growth this quarter. Growth of consumer spending has remained resilient, and investment in equipment and intangibles has picked up from its anemic pace last year. In the housing sector, investment fell back in the second quarter after rising strongly in the first. Improving supply conditions have supported resilient demand in the strong performance of the US economy over the past year. In our summary of economic projections, Committee participants generally expect GDP growth to remain solid, with a median projection of 2% over the next few years.
最近的指标显示,美国经济活动继续稳步增长。今年上半年,GDP以2.2%的年率增长,现有数据显示三季度的增长速度大致相同。消费支出增长保持韧性,设备和无形资产投资已从去年的疲软速度回升。在住房领域,投资在第一季度强劲增长后在第二季度回落。供应条件的改善支撑了美国经济在过去一年强劲表现中的韧性需求侧。在我们的经济预测摘要中,FOMC委员会参与者普遍预计美国GDP增长将保持稳健,未来几年的预测中值为2%。
In the labor market, conditions have continued to cool. Payroll job gains averaged 116,000 per month over the past three months, a notable step down from the pace seen earlier in the year. The unemployment rate has moved up, but remains low at 4.2%. Nominal wage growth has eased over the past year, and the jobs to workers gap has narrowed overall. A broad set of indicators suggest that conditions in the labor market are now less tight than just before the pandemic in 2019. The labor market is not a source of elevated in inflationary pressures. The median projection for the unemployment rate in the SEP is 4.4% at the end of this year, four tenths higher than projected in June.
劳动力市场情况持续降温。过去三个月,非农就业岗位平均每月增加11.6万个,与今年早些时候的速度相比明显放缓。失业率有所上升,但仍保持在4.2%的低位。名义工资增长在过去一年有所放缓,职位空缺与求职人数之间的差距总体上有所缩小。一系列指标表明,劳动力市场的紧张状况目前比2019年疫情爆发前有所缓解。劳动力市场并不是通胀压力高企的根源了。美联储经济预测中对今年年底的失业率中值预测为4.4%,比6月份的预测高出0.4个百分点。
Inflation has eased notably over the past two years, but remains above our longer run goal of 2%. Estimates based on the consumer price index and other data indicate that total PCE prices rose 2.2% over the 12 months, ending in August, and that excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.7%. Longer term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored, as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households, businesses and forecasters, as well as measures from financial markets. The median projection in the SEP for total PCE inflation is 2.3% this year and 2.1% next year, somewhat lower than projected in June. Thereafter. The median projection is 2%.
过去两年通胀率明显下降,但仍高于我们2%的长期目标。根据消费者价格指数和其他数据估计,截至8月的12个月内,名义PCE价格将上涨2.2%,不包括波动较大的食品和能源类别,核心PCE价格将上涨2.7%。长期通胀预期似乎仍良好锚定,这反映在对家庭、企业和预测者的广泛调查以及金融市场的指标中。美联储经济预测中对今年PCE总通胀率的预测中值为2.3%,明年为2.1%,略低于6月份的预测。2026年及以后的预测中值为2%。
Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. For much of the past three years, inflation ran well above our 2% goal, and labor market conditions were extremely tight. Our primary focus had been on bringing down inflation, and appropriately so, we are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power, especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of essentials like food, housing and transportation. Our restrictive monetary policy has helped restore the balance between aggregate supply and demand, easing inflationary pressures and ensuring that inflation expectations remain well anchored.
Our patient approach over the past year has paid dividends. Inflation is now much closer to our objective, and we have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2% . As inflation has declined, the labor market has cooled, the upside risks to inflation have diminished and the downside risks to employment have increased. We now see the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals as roughly in balance, and we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate in light of the progress on inflation in the balance of risks.
At today‘s meeting, the committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by a half percentage point to four and three quarters percent to 5%. This recalibration of our policy stance will help maintain the strength of the economy and the labor market, and will continue to enable further progress on inflation as we begin the process of moving toward a more neutral stance.
在今天的会议上,委员会决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调50个基点,至4.75%到5%。这一政策立场的重新校准将有助于保持经济和劳动力市场的强劲,并将继续推动通胀进一步下降,同时我们正开始转向更中性的立场。
We are not on any preset course. We will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting. We know that reducing policy restraint too quickly could hinder progress on inflation. At the same time, reducing restraint too slowly could unduly weaken economic activity and employment. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook and the balance of risks.
我们没有预先设定的政策路线,将继续在每次会议上做出决定。我们知道,过快减少政策限制可能会阻碍通胀降温的进展。同时,过慢减少限制可能会过度削弱经济活动和就业。在考虑对联邦基金利率目标区间进行额外调整时,委员会将仔细评估即将公布的数据、不断变化的前景和风险平衡。
In our Sep FOMC, participants wrote down their individual assessments of an ap0propriate path for the federal funds rate based on what each participant judges to be the most likely scenario going forward, if the economy evolves as expected. The median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 4.4% at the end of This year and 3.4% at the end of 2025. These median projections are lower than in June, consistent with the projections for lower inflation and higher unemployment as well as the changed balance of risks.
在我们9月份的FOMC会议上,参与官员们根据各自对未来最可能出现情况的判断,写下了他们对联邦基金利率适当路径的评估,前提是经济按预期发展。中位数预测是,联邦基金利率的适当水平在今年年底为4.4%,2025年底为3.4%。这些中位数预测低于6月份的预测,与通胀下降、失业率上升以及风险平衡变化的预测一致。
These projections, however, are not a committee plan or decision. As the economy evolves, monetary policy will adjust in order to best promote our maximum employment and price stability goals. If the economy remains solid and inflation persists, we can dial back policy restraint more slowly. If the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly, or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated, we are prepared to respond.
然而,这些预测并非委员会的计划或决定。随着经济的发展,货币政策将进行调整,以最好地促进我们的最大化就业和价格稳定目标。如果经济保持稳健且通胀持续存在,我们可以更缓慢地放松政策限制。如果劳动力市场意外走弱,或者通胀下降速度快于预期,我们也准备好做出回应。
Policy is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate. The Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary policy, maximum employment and stable prices. We remain committed to supporting maximum employment, bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal, and keeping longer term inflation expectations well anchored. Our success in delivering on these goals matters to all Americans. We understand that our actions affect communities, families and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. We at the Fed will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals.
政策已准备好应对我们在履行双重使命时面临的风险和不确定性。美联储被赋予了两个货币政策目标:最大化就业和稳定物价。我们仍致力于支持充分就业,将通胀率降至2%的目标,并保持长期通胀预期良好锚定。我们能否成功实现这些目标对所有美国人来说都至关重要。我们明白,我们的行动会影响全美的社区、家庭和企业。我们所做的一切都是为了履行我们的公共使命。美联储将竭尽全力实现最大化就业和物价稳定的目标。
责任编辑:李桐
林合羽(记者 林俊冰)09月19日,还记得吴京曾公开劝诫女孩子最好不要进娱乐圈,事实上,能在娱乐圈混得好的女明星,哪怕是咖位在一线,有时候也难免遇到无可奈何的事情,实际上还得靠一个“忍”字。吴京曾公开劝诫女孩子最好不要进娱乐圈,视频截图就比如近日在威尼斯电影节上的一幕,45岁的章子怡作为当晚唯一的华人明星评审,本来应该是一件十分荣耀的事情,但她和另一位外国中老年男星一起颁发影帝奖项时,却遭遇了尴尬的一幕。章子怡出席威尼斯电影节,现场图原因是该外国男星可能是出于礼貌,先是和章子怡握手,接着对章子怡贴面亲吻,有网友觉得这在外国是正常的社交礼仪。文森特·林顿亲吻章子怡,视频截图但从视频可以看出,该外国男星在转头想亲吻章子怡另一边脸颊的时候,章子怡明显后退了,但该男星还是不依不饶蹭上去亲吻。章子怡后退,视频截图所以也有网友觉得该男星这个动作有点不礼貌了,甚至有人觉得他是“性骚扰”。而更费解的是,贴面亲吻后,章子怡和该男星面对镜头合照,但转身的一刻,章子怡露出了一个吃惊,尴尬但还是保持微笑的表情,让这件事显得令人更加生疑。章子怡露出了一个吃惊,尴尬但还是保持微笑的表情,视频截图从章子怡当场的表情可以判断,她确实是遭遇了尴尬的事情,但最后也是要保持体面应对。这让人想起章子怡去年在北影节上也遇到了尴尬的一幕,但身为影后的她同样除了露出一个僵硬的表情,也不敢怎么样。章子怡被陈凯歌当众“推开”,视频截图那次在红毯上她和名导演陈凯歌一起,本来站在陈凯歌身边的她,因为张颂文的出现,拍照时被陈凯歌当众“推开”的一幕引起了很多非议,但章子怡表情虽然尴尬僵硬,下一秒也能马上恢复微笑和张颂文一起合照。章子怡被陈凯歌当众“推开”,视频截图像章子怡这种在国内外娱乐圈的咖位都超一线的女星有时候都只能选择“忍气吞声”,更别说其他女星了。巩俐曾在陪酒时被搂抱,资料图比如蒋欣就公开吐槽过,面试角色时看见副导演拿着选角的女星照片就在乱说话,让她感觉十分受辱,她觉得很多人就毁在了这种导演手上,一个女演员有可能因为没有给对方“好处”就失去了机会,但又无可奈何。蒋欣曾吐槽面试角色的副导演,视频截图像圈内曾有名的“性感女神”柳岩,因为身材傲人而遭受不少非议的她曾直言,不想再做一个随便可以让人调戏的柳岩了。柳岩曾发声不想被人调戏,视频截图还记得当年在包贝尔的婚礼上,身材出众的柳岩作为伴娘被婚礼上的男性嘉宾们推搡着要扔进泳池,当时穿着清凉的她一旦被推进泳池就要面临“走光”的窘境,幸好最后贾玲解救了她的困境。柳岩曾被男嘉宾推搡,资料图但是柳岩却被冠上“在别人婚礼上炒作”的罪名,逼得她不仅要出来道歉,还发毒誓,说自己如果有借别人婚礼炒作就不得好死。柳岩澄清炒作,视频截图哪怕是当红一线女星杨幂也曾遭遇“咸猪手”,在拍摄《小时代》那段时间,她和导演郭敬明,男星陈学冬等上台宣传,期间郭敬明带头扯杨幂的短裙,之后陈学冬也加入了扯短裙的行列。杨幂曾被郭敬明扯短裙,视频截图杨幂也只能一边用手阻止他们的行为,一边还是面对镜头保持微笑。杨幂在《小时代》发布会,视频截图杨颖当年还是娱乐圈当红小花的时候,在公开场合被华谊老板王中磊突然公主抱,杨颖脸上尽管出现了惊恐尴尬的表情,但也不敢做出任何拒绝的动作,只能用手护住了自己的身体。杨颖曾被华谊老板王中磊突然公主抱,资料图像章子怡,杨幂和当红时期的杨颖这种在娱乐圈属于拥有顶级资源和咖位的女星面对某些情况也只能选择“忍”,可见,在娱乐圈女星也有自己的无奈啊。
林合羽(记者 刘子惟)09月19日,中国队进首球后庆祝经历了世预赛18强赛首战客场0比7不敌日本的重创,重新回到主场的国足终于走出了阴影,但在大连梭鱼湾足球场仍然无缘本次18强赛的第1分。9月10日晚,在48628名现场球迷的见证下,中国足球队在对手乌龙且红牌罚下一人的情况下,最终以1比2不敌沙特队,无缘积分。对于目前这支中国队来说,或许也是最现实最遗憾的结果。场上球迷打出的口号主场不怵沙特,国足打入18强赛首球本场比赛,伊万科维奇主教练对首发阵容进行一定调整,还是4-4-2平行中场的体系,门将王大雷,中日之战首发的两名边后卫杨泽翔和刘洋受伤,高准翼和李磊代替首发,双中卫还是蒋光太搭档朱辰杰,拜合拉木顶替徐皓阳进入首发阵容,另外三人蒋圣龙、李源一和谢文能是上一场比赛的首发,锋线费南多顶替张玉宁出场和武磊搭档双前锋。图为比赛现场国足与沙特此前共交手19次,中国队取得6胜5平8负,进22球,失26球。国足上一次战胜沙特是2015年的亚洲杯,当时中国队凭借于海在81分钟的进球1-0击败沙特,而在进球前,王大雷扑出了沙特队的点球。那场比赛国足首发,如今只剩王大雷、武磊仍在国足阵中并担任本场比赛首发。虽然两队交锋纪录国足稍处下风,不过就在大赛的主场成绩,国足完全不怵沙特,1994年前四战全胜。1997年世预赛10强赛也是在大连,凭借着张恩华的头球国足1比0击败沙特,2013年亚洲杯预选赛,国足也在主场和沙特0比0互交白卷,大赛在国内主场对阵沙特保持5胜1平的成绩。国足18强赛的首粒进球这样的心理优势也让国足开场就不怵对手。比赛第14分钟,费南多角球开出,蒋圣龙的头球造成拉贾米的乌龙,国足打破僵局,这也是国足18强赛的首粒进球!沙特球员穆罕默德·卡诺在带球中倒地仅仅2分钟后,沙特球员穆罕默德·卡诺在带球中倒地,随后附加动作正面蹬踹蒋圣龙。VAR介入后,主裁判看过回放后判罚直接红牌!国足在比赛开场16分钟就取得人数领先优势。本场场上裁判组由塔吉克斯坦裁判组成,据悉,由于原定的主裁古尔穆罗季出现了生病情况,临时改由第四官员卡比罗夫执法本场比赛,古尔穆罗季则担任本场第四官员。图为比赛现场伊万、曼奇尼打起帅位保卫战目前两队国际足联排名,沙特第56位远高于国足的87名。据德国转会市场网站身价评估数据,中国队23人名单身价总计为965万欧元,沙特23人名单身价总计为2800万欧元。其中菲拉斯·布赖坎身价最高,为600万欧元。就首发阵容身价估值而言,国足不及对手的1/3。对于两队主帅伊万科维奇和曼奇尼来说本场也都是不折不扣的帅位保卫战。伊万带队5场比赛1胜2平2负,成绩比较惨淡。沙特18强赛首战归化军团组成的第六档球队印尼,只收获1-1的平局,赛后沙特媒体对曼奇尼进行了批评。卡德什头球将比分改写为1-1面对谁都输不起的比赛,沙特在落后且少打一人的情况下,也没有放弃,球队实力也胜过国足。相反,中国队再次出现角球防守丢球,第39分钟,卡德什头球将比分改写为1-1。武磊头球稍稍高出横梁国足首场对阵日本开场第12分钟同样被对手定位球破门。上半场结束前,国足角球进攻制造威胁,武磊头球稍稍高出横梁。上半场国足控球率32%比68%落后,传球成功率仅仅60%,落后于对手的77%,射门5比4略微占优。图为比赛现场技不如人+换人迟缓,最终遭遇逆转半场过后,王上源换下上半场肌肉有些拉伤的蒋光太,蒋圣龙回撤打中卫。国足多打一人,但场上仍然处于下风,面对沙特球员的快节奏,多少有些不适应,频频犯规。不过,国足也在努力寻找机会。进球被判无效第54分钟,国足角球进攻,王上源接武磊头球摆渡,在门前补射破门,但他处在越位位置,进球被判无效。多萨里多次在左路威胁中国队的后防沙特也频频利用反击威胁国足的球门。第62分钟,萨利姆·多萨里快速反击直插国足左肋,一脚劲射击中横梁弹出,中国队侥幸躲过一劫。随后多萨里多次在左路威胁中国队的后防。第69分钟,张玉宁替补武磊出场,球队也利用对手体能下降,打出了一波进攻,可惜拜合拉木的射门被对手门将扑出。主帅伊万的换人也多少让人有些并不理解,直到谢文能体能透支有些受伤才又进行换人调整。沙特队再次利用角球破门,2比1反超了比分这最终也导致了糟糕的结果,第89分钟,沙特队再次利用角球,由卡德什破门,2比1反超了比分。本场比赛,国足多少兑现了赛前的承诺,打出了精神面貌。然而,技不如人加上换人上的迟疑,最终让球队无缘拿到积分。根据接下来世预赛18强赛的赛程安排,国足下一场比赛将于10月10日在客场对阵澳大利亚队。延伸阅读沙特队充满求胜欲,曼奇尼:最后时刻换进攻球员,就是想赢沙特队主教练曼奇尼北京时间10日晚间,世预赛18强赛第二轮,沙特队客场挑战中国队,在0比1落后且少一人的情况下,沙特队靠着两个角球打进两球,最终2比1击败中国队,拿到了18强赛首胜。赛后,沙特队主教练曼奇尼表示,“祝贺我的球员,他们踢出了一场完美的比赛,在很长时间内少打一人的情况下,坚持了90分钟,赢下了比赛。”梅开二度的沙特球员卡迪什表示,“如主教练所说,这不是一场容易的比赛,尤其是少一人的情况下,赢下了三分,很重要。我要感谢所有队友,大家都很棒,我们会继续前进。”比赛80分钟左右,曼奇尼连换三人改变了战局,对于及时的调整,曼奇尼表示,“我们非常想赢下比赛,有很强的求胜欲望,把进攻很强的球员最后时刻换上,就是想赢下比赛。”对于两个角球进球是否有设计这个话题,曼奇尼表示,“没有针对性训练,我们做的是尽可能尝试,角球方面没有特殊准备。”两场比赛1胜1平拿到4分,对于出线前景,曼奇尼认为现在讨论为时过早,“还有八场比赛,下一场和日本队的比赛非常重要,所有比赛都是很艰难的。”少一人情况下如何应对?曼奇尼透露,“红牌情况不清楚,我认为球员犯了一个错误,我们有很强的求胜欲望,战术调整我把卡迪什换到了左后卫,换了阵型(4-4-1)。”
声明: 本文由入驻搜狐公众平台的作者撰写,除搜狐官方账号外,观点仅代表作者本人,不代表搜狐立场。
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